Update on COVID-19 growth trends – by John Wilson.
The number of hospital admissions in Spain is now falling, after the Christmas spike. In the UK, the rate of hospital admissions continues to fall rapidly.
The rate of hospital admissions in the Valencian Community has begun to fall rapidly and its hospital bed occupancy for COVID patients is no longer the worst in Spain – falling to 22.57%, from 34.33% seven days ago; this compares with the average COVID bed occupancy for Spain, which is 17.36%, compared to 22.21% seven days ago. (Castilla y León now has the highest COVID bed occupancy, at 24.21%.)
The rate of new admissions in Madrid, for COVID patients has stayed constant at a relatively low level and its hospital bed occupancy continues to fall – 23.53% of hospital beds have COVID patients today, compared with 27.07% seven days ago.
Closer to home the GVA site reports that the fourteen-day rate for new cases in Jávea has fallen significantly this week. The GVA site reports 117 new cases in the past two weeks, compared with 188, seven days ago; three weeks ago, the corresponding number was 288. Denia’s numbers are also falling – 246 new cases in the past two weeks compared with 364, seven days ago.
The graphs for France, Italy and the Netherlands use Worldometer figures. The Worldometer numbers include both hospital new cases and community testing so they are showing a more pessimistic trend than what is actually happening with their hospital admissions. The next post will be on Friday 19th FebruaryStay safe.John Wilson
Data sources: Daily Spanish Government data is posted here: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/…/nCov-China/situacionActual.htmToday’s Spanish Govt. report here: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/…/Actualizacion_311_COVID-19.pdf GVA Valencian Community daily press releases here: https://www.gva.es/es/inicio/area_de_prensa GVA Valencian Community data dashboard:http://coronavirus.san.gva.es/es/estadisticas…Daily Spanish newspaper commentary: https://english.elpais.com/UK COVID-19 daily report: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare and https://beta.isdscotland.org/…/covid-19-statistical…/ Worldometer: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countriesBackground & explanation of what the “cases per 1000 beds” graphs mean:https://www.facebook.com/groups/jaspas/permalink/3112648712130524/Population, Eurostat:https://ec.europa.eu/…/Population_and_population_change…Population of Spain’s autonomous communities:https://www.statista.com/…/population-of-spain-by…/Hospital Beds, Eurostat (Madrid & VC have been pro-rata’d from Spain’s numbers):https://ec.europa.eu/…/Healthcare_resource_statistics… Other useful links to bookmark: https://xabiaaldia.com/https://lamarinaplaza.com/marina-alta/javea/https://www.javea.com/https://www.spainenglish.com/coronavirus-spain/https://www.theleader.info/…/spain/community-of-valencia/https://www.diarioinformacion.com/alicante/https://www.levante-emv.com/valencia/View insights3.5K post reach