Friday 22nd January – update on COVID-19 growth trends

The number of hospital admissions in Spain continues to climb, corresponding to the timing of the Christmas get-togethers.

However, in the UK the rate of hospital admissions is flattening.

The rate of new admissions in the Valencian Community has accelerated further, and its hospital bed occupancy for COVID patients (the worst in Spain) has risen to 39.96%, from 30.34% seven days ago; this compares with the average COVID bed occupancy for Spain, which is 21.63%, compared to 15.69% seven days ago.

The rate of new admissions in Madrid, for COVID patients has risen slightly, but its hospital bed occupancy has risen significantly – 25.79% of hospital beds have COVID patients today, compared with 18.30% eight days ago.

Closer to home, the effects of Christmas are also visible. The GVA site reports that the fourteen-day rate for new cases in Jávea has again risen this week, but at a slower rate than reported in the previous two weeks. The GVA site reports 288 new cases in the past two weeks, compared with 226, seven days ago.

Denia’s numbers are very bad – 543 new cases in the past two weeks compared with 485, seven days ago. For both Javea, and Denia, most of the rise was reported on Tuesday, with a smaller rise reported today for the second half of the week, and it appears the numbers are beginning to turn downwards from the post-Christmas explosion.

The graphs for France, Italy and the Netherlands use Worldometer figures. The Worldometer numbers include both hospital new cases and community testing so they are showing a more pessimistic trend than what is actually happening with their hospital admissions.

The next post will be on Friday 29th January. Stay safe.John Wilson.

Data sources:Daily Spanish Government data is posted here: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/…/nCov-China/situacionActual.htmToday’s Spanish Govt. report here: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/…/Actualizacion_296_COVID-19.pdfGVA Valencian Community daily press releases here: https://www.gva.es/es/inicio/area_de_prensaGVA Valencian Community data dashboard:http://coronavirus.san.gva.es/es/estadisticas…Daily Spanish newspaper commentary: https://english.elpais.com/UK COVID-19 daily report: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare and https://beta.isdscotland.org/…/covid-19-statistical…/Worldometer: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countriesBackground & explanation of what the “cases per 1000 beds” graphs mean:https://www.facebook.com/…/permalink/3112648712130524/Population, Eurostat:https://ec.europa.eu/…/Population_and_population_change…Population of Spain’s autonomous communities:https://www.statista.com/…/population-of-spain-by…/Hospital Beds, Eurostat (Madrid & VC have been pro-rata’d from Spain’s numbers):https://ec.europa.eu/…/Healthcare_resource_statistics…Other useful links to bookmark:https://xabiaaldia.com/https://lamarinaplaza.com/marina-alta/javea/https://www.javea.com/https://www.spainenglish.com/coronavirus-spain/https://www.theleader.info/…/spain/community-of-valencia/https://www.diarioinformacion.com/alicante/https://www.levante-emv.com/valencia/