Latest COVID-19 trends by John Wilson

Friday 30th July

The numbers of hospital admissions in Spain and the UK are rising but there is no evidence of an exponential (hockey-stick) trend in admissions.
The hospital occupancy for COVID patients across Spain is rising, but the upward trend is now beginning to slow.
 
In the Valencian Community hospital occupancy has increased to 6.52%, compared with 5.66% seven days ago; this is lower than the average COVID bed occupancy for Spain, which has risen to 8.24%, compared to 6.64% seven days ago.
 
The trend in daily admissions in Madrid is rising and its hospital bed occupancy has also risen – 10.30% of hospital beds have COVID patients today, compared with 7.22% seven days ago.
 
Closer to home the GVA site reports that the fourteen-day rate for positive cases in Jávea has risen to 233 positive cases in the past two weeks, compared with 179, just seven days ago. Dénia’s numbers are dramatically up – 383 positive cases in the past two weeks, compared with 283, seven days ago.
 
The graphs for France, Italy and the Netherlands use Worldometer figures. The Worldometer numbers include both hospital new cases and community testing so they are showing a more pessimistic trend than what is actually happening with their hospital admissions, but the infection rate in the Netherlands has slowed following its rapid spike in the past two weeks.
Data sources:
Daily Spanish Government data is posted here: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/…/nCov-China/situacionActual.htm
GVA Valencian Community daily press releases here: https://www.gva.es/es/inicio/area_de_prensa
GVA Valencian Community data dashboard:
Daily Spanish newspaper commentary: https://english.elpais.com/