By John Wilson

Friday 19th February – update on COVID-19 growth trends

The number of hospital admissions in Spain continues to fall after the Christmas spike. Likewise, in the UK, the rate of hospital admissions continues to fall rapidly.

The rate of hospital admissions in the Valencian Community continues to fall rapidly and its hospital bed occupancy for COVID patients has fallen to 14.00%, from 22.57% seven days ago; this compares with the average COVID bed occupancy for Spain, which is 12.83%, compared to 17.36% seven days ago.

The hospitalisation numbers for Madrid were reset this week and this is probably responsible for the glitch in the numbers for this week. Madrid now has the highest COVID bed occupancy – despite this, its hospital bed occupancy has fallen this week – 18.79% of hospital beds have COVID patients today, compared with 23.53% seven days ago.

Closer to home the GVA site reports that the fourteen-day rate for new cases in Jávea has fallen significantly this week. The GVA site reports 59 new cases in the past two weeks, compared with 117, seven days ago; four weeks ago, the corresponding number was 288. Denia’s numbers are also falling rapidly – 108 new cases in the past two weeks compared with 246, seven days ago.

The graphs for France, Italy and the Netherlands use Worldometer figures. The Worldometer numbers include both hospital new cases and community testing so they are showing a more pessimistic trend than what is actually happening with their hospital admissions.

Data sources: Daily Spanish Government data is posted here: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/…/nCov-China/situacionActual.htmToday’s Spanish Govt. report here: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/…/Actualizacion_316_COVID-19.pdf GVA Valencian Community daily press releases here: https://www.gva.es/es/inicio/area_de_prensa GVA Valencian Community data dashboard:http://coronavirus.san.gva.es/es/estadisticas…Daily Spanish newspaper commentary: https://english.elpais.com/UK COVID-19 daily report: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare and https://beta.isdscotland.org/…/covid-19-statistical…/ Worldometer: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countriesBackground & explanation of what the “cases per 1000 beds” graphs mean:https://www.facebook.com/groups/jaspas/permalink/3112648712130524/Population, Eurostat:https://ec.europa.eu/…/Population_and_population_change…Population of Spain’s autonomous communities:https://www.statista.com/…/population-of-spain-by…/Hospital Beds, Eurostat (Madrid & VC have been pro-rata’d from Spain’s numbers):https://ec.europa.eu/…/Healthcare_resource_statistics… Other useful links to bookmark: https://xabiaaldia.com/https://lamarinaplaza.com/marina-alta/javea/https://www.javea.com/https://www.spainenglish.com/coronavirus-spain/https://www.theleader.info/…/spain/community-of-valencia/https://www.diarioinformacion.com/alicante/https://www.levante-emv.com/valencia/