Friday 15th January – update on COVID-19 growth trends.

The number of hospital admissions in Spain has begun to climb this week, corresponding to the timing of the Christmas get-togethers.

However, in the UK the rate of hospital admissions has begun to flatten. The rate of new admissions in the Valencian Community has begun to rise faster and its hospital bed occupancy for COVID patients is, again, the worst in Spain, having risen to 30.34%, from 23.34% seven days ago; this compares with the average COVID bed occupancy for Spain, which is 15.69%, compared to 12.22% seven days ago.

The rate of new admissions in Madrid, for COVID patients has risen slightly, but its hospital bed occupancy has risen significantly – 18.30% of hospital beds have COVID patients today, compared with 12.50% eight days ago.

Closer to home, the effects of Christmas are also visible. The GVA site reports that the fourteen-day rate for new cases in Jávea has risen sharply this week. The GVA site reports 226 new cases in the past two weeks, compared with 130, seven days ago. Denia’s numbers are even worse – 485 new cases in the past two weeks compared with 308, seven days ago. For both Javea, and Denia, most of the big rise was reported on Tuesday, and a smaller rise reported today for the second half of the week, so, hopefully, the trends will improve next week

.The graphs for France, Italy and the Netherlands use Worldometer figures. The Worldometer numbers include both hospital new cases and community testing so they are showing a more pessimistic trend than what is actually happening with their hospital admissions. The trends in Italy and France are rising slowly, and the trend in the Netherlands continues to fall.

Stay safe -John Wilson

Data sources:Daily Spanish Government data is posted here: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/…/nCov-China/situacionActual.htmToday’s Spanish Govt. report here: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/…/Actualizacion_290_COVID-19.pdfGVA Valencian Community daily press releases here: https://www.gva.es/es/inicio/area_de_prensaGVA Valencian Community data dashboard:http://coronavirus.san.gva.es/es/estadisticas…Daily Spanish newspaper commentary: https://english.elpais.com/UK COVID-19 daily report: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare and https://beta.isdscotland.org/…/covid-19-statistical…/Worldometer: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countriesBackground & explanation of what the “cases per 1000 beds” graphs mean:https://www.facebook.com/…/permalink/3112648712130524/Population, Eurostat:https://ec.europa.eu/…/Population_and_population_change…Population of Spain’s autonomous communities:https://www.statista.com/…/population-of-spain-by…/Hospital Beds, Eurostat (Madrid & VC have been pro-rata’d from Spain’s numbers):https://ec.europa.eu/…/Healthcare_resource_statistics…Other useful links to bookmark:https://xabiaaldia.com/https://lamarinaplaza.com/marina-alta/javea/https://www.javea.com/https://www.spainenglish.com/coronavirus-spain/https://www.theleader.info/…/spain/community-of-valencia/https://www.diarioinformacion.com/alicante/https://www.levante-emv.com/valencia/